The HVAC market shows no signs of slowing in 2025. Quite the opposite, more and more businesses and homeowners rely on HVAC companies to install and maintain their cooling and heating systems.

New energy efficiency standards and smart technology are pushing the industry forward. Phasing down of refrigerants, SEER regulations, smart AI systems, renewable energy… it’s not easy to keep up. To stay competitive, HVAC companies need to adapt their marketing strategies quickly.

We’re here to help!

This article covers key HVAC figures and facts to keep your finger on the pulse of current industry trends. Use these insights to play your HVAC marketing cards right in 2025.

General HVAC Industry Trends and Stats

The HVAC market is heating up and is expected to explode in 2025, both in Canada and abroad.  Key drivers include new construction, stricter environmental regulations, advancing technology, and climate change. 

Here are the key HVAC industry trends to keep tabs on:

• The global HVAC market is estimated at $69.85 billion. By 2030, it’s projected to exceed $94.71 billion, with a steady annual growth rate of 6.28%.
  
  
• The Canadian HVAC market is expected to continue growing, with a projected annual growth rate of 3.36%
  
  
• Asia and North America have the largest HVAC markets, with the highest demand for air conditioners worldwide.
  
  
• The US HVAC market is expected to hit $35.8 billion by 2030.
   
• Residential units make up 41% of the global HVAC services market.
  
  
• However, cost isn’t the top factor consumers consider when buying an HVAC system. 83% of consumers say something else matters most. For 38% of buyers, system reliability is the top priority. Only 7% of consumers choose based on brand reputation.
  
  

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Here’s how to put those insights to work:

• Target High-Growth Areas: Target areas with growing HVAC demand. Use local SEO to boost visibility, run geo-targeted ads, and create promotions based on the local climate.
  
  
• Use SMS and Chat to Engage Homeowners: Use Chekkit’s text messaging and chat to capture more residential leads. Send reminders, updates, and promotions to keep customers engaged and boost conversions.
  
  
• Highlight Reliability in Your Messaging: Since buyers care more about reliability than cost, focus on marketing product durability, warranties, and energy efficiency. Use customer reviews to back it up.
  
  

Trends Shaped by HVAC Regulatory Compliance

Rising energy consumption, higher temperatures, and soaring utility bills make sustainability more important than ever. In fact, half of the American population is already feeling the effects of climate change. The EPA and DOE are stepping in with new rules for air conditioning systems. These include:

New Energy Efficiency Standards

In April 2021, the NRCan Office of Energy Efficiency unveiled its updated Forward Regulatory Plan for 2021–2023. This plan outlines a proposal to amend Canada’s Energy Efficiency Regulations to align the standards for single-phase central air conditioners and heat pumps with those in the United States, while also considering Canada’s unique climate conditions.

In early 2023, the US Department of Energy (DOE) introduced new SEER2 regulations. These regulations raised the minimum energy efficiency standards by 8-10%. As a result, about 70% of current products no longer meet the updated guidelines. 

The good news? Homeowners don't need to replace their current system unless it's broken or poorly installed. New efficiency standards only apply to systems bought after 2023.

Phasedown of Refrigerants

Starting January 2025, all new residential air conditioners and heat pumps must use A2L refrigerants. Older refrigerants like R-410, likely used in your current system, are being phased out. These new refrigerants come with a reduced global warming potential (GWP).

Upgrading to A2L refrigerants and energy-efficient HVAC systems isn’t cheap. Customers can expect to pay up to 15% more for an A2L-compliant system, whereas each SEER rating increase could add $350–$1,500 or more to the cost. The upside? These newer energy-efficient systems will save them money on energy bills in the long run. 

Here’s how to put this insight to work: 

The keyword here is ethical marketing. Ethical marketing is all about transparency, responsibility, and honesty. It’s not a new concept, but it’s set to be a must-have HVAC marketing strategy by 2025. Build trust now for long-term success. Here’s how HVAC businesses can get started:

• Build Trust with Transparency: Disclose accurate information on your website and social media about your products’ energy efficiency and regulatory compliance details. Explain how customers can save money with early bookings or maintenance plans.
  
  
• Send Automated Updates: Use email or text campaigns to let customers know about price changes and how they can prepare.
  
  
• Publish Educational Content: Create articles to educate your audience and help them make informed choices about HVAC products and best practices
  
  
• Encourage Reviews on Cost-Effectiveness: 74% of consumers check online reviews before buying an HVAC system. Consider asking satisfied customers to leave feedback about how your services helped them save on energy bills or long-term HVAC costs.
  
  

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HVAC Technology Trends

Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Solutions

Canada's indoor air purification market is projected to generate USD 943.3 million by 2030, driven by a vigorous compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% between 2025 and 2030.

In the US indoor air quality market is projected to reach $11.9 billion by 2027. With 90% of people’s time spent indoors, demand for air purifiers and advanced filters is booming. Modern HVAC systems now use UV-C light and HEPA filters to clean the air. Better ventilation is also improving indoor spaces, making homes and workplaces healthier.

Solar-Powered HVAC Systems

Three-quarters of US homes use air conditioning. That much cooling adds up: power plants produce 117 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year to keep them running. Air conditioners aren’t just bad for the environment, they’re expensive, too. On average, they add $437.50 to utility bills every year. That's why integrating renewable solar energy into HVAC systems is crucial. Solar ACs use solar panels to power your air conditioning, cutting electricity bills and reducing grid reliance.

Geothermal Heat Pumps

Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) are gaining popularity in homes, businesses, and industries. They offer both heating and cooling in one energy-efficient system, helping customers save on energy bills. With rising interest in closed-loop geothermal HVAC systems, the GHP market is projected to hit $21.5 billion by 2030.

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Here’s how to put these insights to work:

• Capitalize on the Growing Demand for IAQ Solutions: Promote air purifiers, HEPA filters, and ventilation upgrades to meet the increased demand for better indoor quality. Optimize your local SEO to show up for searches like “best indoor air quality solutions near me.”
  
  
• Use Reviews and Chat to Educate Customers on Energy-Efficient HVAC: Many customers are unfamiliar with solar-powered HVAC and geothermal heat pumps. Use chat tools to provide real-time answers about cost savings and efficiency. Ask customers to leave reviews about their experience switching to greener HVAC solutions.
  
  
• Position Yourself as a Green HVAC Leader: Post blogs, FAQs, and social posts that highlight how renewable HVAC technology saves money and helps the environment over time.

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Smart HVAC Systems

Canada's smart home market is forecasted to generate an impressive revenue of USD $33.63 billion by 2030. From 2025 to 2030, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.3%, signaling rapid advancements and increasing adoption of smart home technologies.

What’s driving this trend? First, consumers want HVAC systems that are more comfortable, secure, and energy-efficient. Second, governments are offering financial incentives to encourage energy-efficient systems in homes and businesses.

Some smart HVAC technologies, like smart thermostats, are also gaining traction due to stricter environmental regulations and a focus on cutting energy use.

In 2025, 77.05 million US households are expected to adopt smart home technology. Younger generations are driving this trend. 75% of smart home consumers are under 55, with Gen Z and Millennials leading the way.

AI-Powered Predictive Maintenance

One way AI can help HVAC providers is with predictive maintenance alerts. Here's how it works: Sensors in HVAC equipment send data to an AI system, which spots potential issues before they turn into major problems. This helps HVAC providers make quick decisions, avoid downtime, cut costs, and use resources more efficiently. AI also adjusts system settings in real time, learning from usage patterns to improve efficiency.

IoT Connectivity

The Internet of Things (IoT) connects everyday devices to the Internet, allowing them to send, receive, and share data with you and other devices. This technology makes HVAC systems smarter and more efficient. It helps heating and cooling equipment work better, saving energy and improving performance.

Connecting HVAC equipment to a network of sensors and devices helps buildings optimize energy use like never before. These smart systems adjust temperatures based on room occupancy, so you’re not heating or cooling empty spaces. They also manage energy use during peak times to cut costs and reduce strain on the power grid. Plus, they learn your comfort preferences and automatically adjust settings, even when you're not home.

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Here’s how to put these insights to work:

• Highlight Smart HVAC Upgrades in Your Marketing: Promote smart thermostats, AI-powered maintenance, and IoT-connected devices through social media, blog content, and targeted ads.
  
  
• Make Smart HVAC Simple with Easy-to-Access Support: Use chat and text messaging tools to assist less tech-savvy customers with setup and troubleshooting. Providing instant, friendly guidance can reduce hesitation and increase conversions.
  
  
• Personalize Offers Based on Customer Data: Use customer service interactions, past purchases, and location data to recommend relevant smart HVAC solutions. Personalized marketing can increase conversion rates and customer loyalty.
  
  

Key Takeaways

Staying on top of HVAC industry trends can give your business a competitive edge. Here’s what to know for 2025:

• The HVAC market is growing fast, especially in residential areas. Use local SEO and geo-targeted ads to reach customers where demand is highest.
  
  
• New energy regulations mean homeowners will need upgrades. Transparent marketing can build trust and drive sales.
  
• Eco-friendly technology like solar-powered systems and geothermal heat pumps is gaining traction. Highlight these options for environmentally conscious buyers.
  
  
• Smart HVAC systems with AI and IoT are making systems more efficient. Promote these to tech-savvy and energy-conscious customers.
  
  

Chekkit helps HVAC businesses connect with customers through SMS, chat, and reviews. Keep homeowners informed about upgrades, regulations, and smart HVAC solutions—all in one platform. Schedule a free demo today!

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